Shane Life

My beloved Chiefs’ first pre-season game is tomorrow night. Without having seen any of their training camp or any games, is there a better time to predict exactly how they’ll do this season?

There are many questions plaguing the Chiefs these days…who will start at Quarterback (I’m predicting Brodie Croyle, making Damon Huard just another overpaid backup), will the offensive line hold up (against the run, they’ll be fine, but the big question is pass protection for the new QB), will Dwayne Bowe start at WR (I’ll predict not in game 1), and will Larry Johnson show up (he’s getting fined $14,000 per day he isn’t in camp…he’ll show up before the season starts)?

The Chiefs defense is in better shape than it has been since Dick Vermeil arrived in town, so they can be expected to be in most games, even with the 2-game absence of their second-best pass rusher, Jared “Double-Dewey” Allen.

However, if Larry Johnson doesn’t show up, the Chiefs could be in serious trouble. If he does report, my predictions are as follows:

Week 1: at Houston Texans - WIN
Week 2: at Chicago Bears - LOSS
Week 3: Minnesota Vikings - WIN
Week 4: at San Diego Chargers - LOSS
Week 5: Jacksonville Jaguars - WIN
Week 6: Cincinnati Bengals - LOSS
Week 7: at Oakland Raiders - WIN
Week 8: Bye
Week 9: Green Bay Packers - WIN
Week 10: Denver Broncos - WIN
Week 11: at Indianapolis Colts - LOSS
Week 12: Oakland Raiders - WIN
Week 13: San Diego Chargers - LOSS
Week 14: at Denver Broncos - LOSS
Week 15: Tennessee Titans - WIN
Week 16: at Detroit Lions - WIN
Week 17: at New York Jets - WIN

I am such a homer. I have them going 10-6 somehow. I don’t know if that will be enough to make the playoffs this year, but if they manage to pull off 10-6…I’ll be ecstatic. I somehow don’t think that will happen. Let’s say I miss one of those games in there and we’ll call the season (with Larry Johnson) at 9-7 and they miss the playoffs.

However, if Carl manages to fumble re-signing Larry Johnson (who probably doesn’t deserve the $28 million guaranteed he’s asking for, but probably deserves somewhere in the realm of $20-24 million), the Chiefs could be scrambling to figure something out. Michael Bennett has proved he isn’t nearly durable enough to be an every down back and there are some pundits out there that are pretty high on Louisville rookie Kolby Smith, but I don’t see either one of them being a good enough replacement for one of the best pure running backs in the league.

Johnson knows this and it is his greatest bargaining chip he has. However, his truculence with the media and his well-publicized rift with former coach Dick Vermeil certainly don’t help him out in the public opinion realm. Plus, there is the obvious negative connotation to anyone that holds out (I don’t care what you say, Tony Gonzalez - fans hate hold outs, even when they are merited).

In the unfortunate event of Larry Johnson holding out all year, here is my prediction for the Chiefs season:

Week 1: at Houston Texans - LOSS
Week 2: at Chicago Bears - LOSS
Week 3: Minnesota Vikings - WIN
Week 4: at San Diego Chargers - LOSS
Week 5: Jacksonville Jaguars - WIN
Week 6: Cincinnati Bengals - LOSS
Week 7: at Oakland Raiders - LOSS
Week 8: Bye
Week 9: Green Bay Packers - LOSS
Week 10: Denver Broncos - WIN
Week 11: at Indianapolis Colts - LOSS
Week 12: Oakland Raiders - WIN
Week 13: San Diego Chargers - LOSS
Week 14: at Denver Broncos - LOSS
Week 15: Tennessee Titans - WIN
Week 16: at Detroit Lions - LOSS
Week 17: at New York Jets - LOSS

That would put them at 5-11 and might even merit them a top 5 draft pick next year. That makes me a little nervous, considering we have an awful tendency to screw up those top 5 picks (Ryan Sims, hello?), but I imagine that Herm would DROOL at the thought of being able to draft someone of that type of talent. What he has to remember, however, is that Carl Peterson will still be the General Manager and you can guarantee that the pick won’t be in camp before week 3.

I hate to be down on the Chiefs…I’ll still watch every game, but at the same time, I wish I felt better about this season than I do right now. Maybe we’ll know more after the pre-season is over.