Shane Life

Alli’s review over at The Shane Fan Club is much better. Much shorter, too.

Best Picture:

• Brokeback Mountain
• Capote
• Crash
• Good Night, and Good Luck
• Munich

I can’t say I’m terribly surprised about any of these. These have been lauded by the critics for months now. I’ve seen 3 out of the 5 and hope to catch Capote and Good Night, and Good Luck before the actual show.

I really wished that King Kong would have gotten a little more recognition. That movie was absolutely fantastic and I think that the academy widely ignored it because Peter Jackson had just recently had his day in the limelight with the Lord of the Rings Trilogy. It was a much better movie than Munich, which I thought dragged on way too long and was only acclaimed because it was Spielberg’s latest (although Eric Bana was very good.

And don’t let the SAG Award for Crash fool you. The Academy will go with the cowboys.

My prediction: Brokeback Mountain (although I really really REALLY want Crash to win)

Best Actor:

• Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Capote”
• Terrence Howard, “Hustle & Flow”
• Heath Ledger, “Brokeback Mountain”
• Joaquin Phoenix, “Walk the Line”
• David Strathairn, “Good Night, and Good Luck”

This was a year of some strong performances by men in movies. I’ve only seend 2 of these performances (Walk the Line and Brokeback Mountain), BUT from what I’ve seen of Philip Seymour Hoffman’s performance in Capote, I have a strong feeling that he is going to win. While he may not be the most deserving this year (Joaquin Phoenix became Johnny Cash and, to borrow a quote from my boy Silent Bob, Heath Ledger’s Ennis Delmar existed), but I really think that he is going to take home the Oscar this year because he is pretty much ALWAYS good.

I think that it is really cool that they recognized Terence Howard’s performance in Hustle & Flow, but I don’t think he’ll win. I haven’t seen the flick, but he is an up-and-coming star who was terrific in MY favorite movie of the year, Crash. David Straithairn…be happy with the nomination, sir…this isn’t your year.

My prediction: Philip Seymour Hoffman (definitely wouldn’t mind if Joaquin won, though)

Best Actress:

• Judi Dench, “Mrs. Henderson Presents”
• Felicity Huffman, “Transamerica”
• Keira Knightley, “Pride & Prejudice”
• Charlize Theron, “North Country”
• Reese Witherspoon, “Walk the Line”

I have a feeling that the Academy is going to go against the grain on this one. Common sense would say, “pick Reese Witherspoon…she won the Globe and the SAG” and while Reese was excellent in Walk the Line, I really think that Felicity Huffman is going to win for Transamerica. I don’t know why. I haven’t seen it (have only seen two of these performances, the other being Charlize in North Country), but I have this feeling that this is the type of role that usually gets noticed by the Academy.

I thought that there were a lot of really good performances from the year that got left off this list. Surprisingly absent is Claire Danes, who (if you asked anyone 3 months ago) was a shoo-in for Shopgirl, but really fell off the radar. Whoever was the publicist behind Mrs. Henderson Presents should get a huge raise. I hadn’t even heard of that movie a month ago and it is up for all sorts of stuff. Keira Knightly…see note to David Straithairn. I guess since no one saw Proof besides me and Alli, the Academy can’t prove it existed and thus cannot nominate Gwyneth Paltrow for this award.

My prediction: Felicity Huffman

Best Supporting Actor:

• George Clooney, “Syriana”
• Matt Dillon, “Crash”
• Paul Giamatti, “Cinderella Man”
• Jake Gyllenhaal, “Brokeback Mountain”
• William Hurt, “A History of Violence”

This is really a tough category. Much tougher than the Best Actor category, which really has only 2 contenders. I have not seen A History of Violence, but the other 4 performances are all deserving of recognition. My wonder is whether the Academy might give this one to George Clooney because he will not win the Directing (nor will he even come close). However, out of the 3 other performances I saw, Jake Gyllenhaal’s really was the best, I thought. Paul Giamatti is a great actor, but this role isn’t a lot different than some of his others…he’s just the “aw shucks” guy who is desperately unattractive, but you can’t help but like him. Matt Dillon, I’m sorry, but you weren’t even the Best Supporting Actor in your own movie (*cough cough* Terence Howard *cough* Don Cheadle).

While I would have liked to see someone from Crash win this one, I don’t think they picked the right person.

My prediction: Jake Gyllenhaal (who will share it with Heath Ledger)

Best Supporting Actress:

• Amy Adams, “Junebug”
• Catherine Keener, “Capote”
• Frances McDormand, “North Country”
• Rachel Weisz, “The Constant Gardener”
• Michelle Williams, “Brokeback Mountain”

Now I can’t really speak from any sort of authority on this one. I’m just going to go with my gut. I agree with Alli. Michelle Williams does NOT deserve to be up. Her acting was mediocre at best. Catherine Keener, you are always very good. Amy Adams, to me, you’ll always be the “purse lady” (and, subsequently, Jim’s girlfriend) from The Office. Didn’t see your movie, so that’s all I’ve got for you. I really really would like to see Frances McDormand win, but I think this is Rachel’s year.

My prediction: Rachel Weisz (outside chance of Amy Adams in an upset)

Best Director:

• Ang Lee, “Brokeback Mountain”
• Bennett Miller, “Capote”
• Paul Haggis, “Crash”
• George Clooney, “Good Night, and Good Luck”
• Steven Spielberg, “Munich”

Honestly, I think it’s garbage that Spielberg is up for this award. Munich was, in my opinion, one of his worst efforts as a director. I was bored and I thought that it was just not that good of a movie. I would love for Paul Haggis to win this one, but he won’t. The cowboys win again.

My prediction: Ang Lee

Best Adapted Screenplay:

• Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, “Brokeback Mountain”
• Dan Futterman, “Capote”
• Jeffrey Caine, “The Constant Gardener”
• Josh Olson, “A History of Violence”
• Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, “Munich”

This discussion is really an exercise in futility. If anyone in their right mind thinks that Brokeback Mountain will NOT win this award, I would think seriously about banning you from my blog forever. Fortunately, no one reads (or if you do, there’s NO WAY you’ve read this far), so I’ll give you a pass.

My prediction: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana

Best Original Screenplay:

• Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, “Crash”
• George Clooney and Grant Heslov, “Good Night, and Good Luck”
• Woody Allen, “Match Point”
• Noah Baumbach, “The Squid and the Whale”
• Stephen Gaghan, “Syriana”

I think that Stephen Gaghan is extremely talented. I thought that Syriana was thought-provoking and interesting. BUT, no one else I saw it with liked it very much. I’ve heard Woody Allen is at the top of his game in Match Point, but to me, that’s not saying much because I can’t stand his movies.

I think that this might be one of the only categories where the person that I think will win and the person I want to win will converge on the podium to give their speech.

My prediction: Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco

OK, so I could go through all the rest of the awards, but that would be a really REALLY long post. And since we’re having a party for the Young Adults here at the house, I won’t get to live-blog like I did with the Golden Globes, but I will leave you with this. Batman Begins is up (deservedly) for Best Cinematography. And while it won’t win, I’m just glad it got recognized. Same with The Chronicles of Narnia. Both were excellent movies.